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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 100.5W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE  40SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  85SE  50SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 100.5W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  99.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.2N 102.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.5N 103.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 104.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.1N 103.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 100.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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