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HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

Patricia has been weakening rapidly while moving farther inland over
the rugged terrain of western Mexico.  Although the circulation
is still intact, the associated convection has lost a significant
amount of organization.  Based on the degraded appearance, the
initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt.  Patricia is moving quickly
north-northeastward at about 18 kt embedded in the flow between a
trough over northwestern Mexico and an anticyclone over the Gulf of
Mexico. This motion is expected to continue until Patricia
dissipates over the mountains of Mexico by tonight.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend and this system should be
non-tropical in nature.  However, this system is expected to draw
significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could
result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next couple of days.  Refer
to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices
for details.

The wind radii in the southeastern quadrant has been expanded
outward significantly based on recent ASCAT passes, which indicated
that tropical-storm-force winds were still occurring in a convective
band near the coast of southwestern Mexico.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Even though Patricia is weakening quickly, strong and damaging
winds at higher elevations could persist through this morning.

2.  Continued very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides in the Mexican states of
Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 22.3N 103.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 12H  24/1800Z 24.6N 101.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

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Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

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