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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
400 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Patricia has become much better organized since this morning.  The
aircraft reported 850 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt about 15 n mi
southeast of the center along with surface wind estimates of 50-55
kt from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer.  The minimum
pressure estimated from the aircraft data is 995 mb.  Based on this
information the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt.

The storm has continued to accelerate, possibly aided be some
reformation of the center, and the initial motion is now 275/14.
Other than this, the track forecast scenario from the previous
advisory still looks good.  The tropical cyclone is expected to
initially move westward to west-northwestward on the south side of a
low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  After 12-24 hours,
Patricia is expected to turn northwestward and northward between the
ridge and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the
adjacent northeastern Pacific.  While the model guidance remains in
excellent agreement with this scenario, there has been a westward
shift since the previous advisory, and the forecast track is also
adjusted westward.  However, the new forecast track is a little to
the east of the center of the guidance envelope.

Now that Patricia has become better organized, it should strengthen
for the next 48 hours or so until a combination of increasing shear
and land interaction halts intensification.  The intensity guidance
is forecasting a stronger peak intensity than previously, and the
new intensity forecast is adjusted upward accordingly.  The new
forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus. However,
some of the models continue to forecast a stronger peak intensity,
and it is possible that Patricia could rapidly intensify into a
stronger system than currently forecast.  After landfall, Patricia
should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of western
Mexico.

The current forecast track requires a hurricane warning for the
southwestern coast of Mexico at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 13.1N  99.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 13.8N 101.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 14.8N 103.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 16.3N 104.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 18.1N 104.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 23.0N 104.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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