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TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
1500 UTC SAT OCT 17 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.4N 129.5W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.4N 129.5W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.4N 129.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z  9.5N 130.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z  9.8N 132.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 10.3N 134.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.0N 135.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.6N 139.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 14.7N 141.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.9N 142.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.4N 129.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
 
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