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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 120.9W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 120.9W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 120.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z  9.9N 122.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z  9.9N 125.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z  9.8N 127.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z  9.9N 128.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 10.7N 131.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 12.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 15.0N 137.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 120.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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