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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
200 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015

The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the
past several hours.  A large area of convection remains near the
center, with some banding features noted in the northwestern
quadrant.  The initial wind speed estimate remains 30 kt in
agreement with the TAFB/SAB Dvorak values and ASCAT data.

The large-scale environment seems favorable for strengthening
over the next several days with low wind shear, very warm water and
moist mid-level conditions likely in the cyclone's path.  Thus
strengthening is predicted, similar to the previous forecast, and
the official forecast is near the intensity consensus. Rapid
intensification seems like a reasonable possibility in the next few
days if the cyclone develops an inner core, and a few models are
showing the cyclone as a major hurricane in the 3-5 day time frame.
Although a hurricane that strong would be quite rare so far west in
the eastern Pacific in late October, this season's storms have
peaked quite a bit farther west than typical, so this scenario
should be mentioned.

A pair of ASCAT passes indicates that the center of the depression
was a bit farther north than geostationary satellite suggested,
although the initial motion remains west, now at about 14 kt.
This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is still
expected for the system during the next couple of days while the
subtropical ridge remains in place but weakens.  After that time,
the cyclone should gradually turn toward the northwest due to a
weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough. Model
guidance remains in good agreement, and the official forecast is
basically an update of the previous one, with a slight northward
adjustment to account for the initial position change.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 10.2N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 10.0N 121.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z  9.9N 123.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z  9.9N 125.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z  9.9N 127.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 10.6N 130.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 12.1N 133.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 14.5N 135.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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