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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
800 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become better organized.  The cloud pattern
consists of a large curved band on its western side and a central
dense overcast feature. In addition, a partial ASCAT pass from
earlier today suggested that the center of circulation has become
better defined. On this basis, this system is classified as a
tropical depression, the nineteenth one of the 2015 eastern North
Pacific season.  The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, following
a Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and the earlier ASCAT data.

The depression is moving just south of due west at about 16 kt
steered by a subtropical ridge to its north.  A general westward
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
few days while the ridge remains in place but weakens.  After that
time, a turn to the northwest is predicted as the cyclone moves
toward a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level
trough.  The model guidance is in fair agreement, and the official
track forecast lies near the consensus aids.

Low wind shear, warm water, and a fairly moist environment should
allow the system to strengthen during the next several days.  The
SHIPS and LGEM models show significant strengthening, bringing the
system to hurricane strength within 48 hours with continued
intensification thereafter.  The official forecast is less
aggressive than those models, but still does call for the depression
to strengthen steadily for the next few days.  This forecast is
between the dynamical and statistical guidance, and a little lower
than the intensity model consensus.  It is interesting to note that
the GFS and ECMWF models also show the system deepening
significantly toward the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z  9.9N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z  9.7N 120.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z  9.5N 122.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z  9.5N 124.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z  9.6N 126.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 10.0N 130.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 11.4N 132.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 13.5N 135.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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