ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015 The depression has not changed much since the previous advisory. The associated deep convection is organized in a curved band to the north and west of the center with a more linear swath of clouds a couple of hundred n mi to the northeast of the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT remain 2.0/30 kt, and a recent ASCAT pass also showed winds around that value. Based on these data, the initial wind speed remains 30 kt. The depression is moving westward at about 14 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. This general heading with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 2-3 days while the ridge weakens. After that time, a turn toward the north and then northeast is predicted when the system becomes embedded in the flow ahead of a large trough. The official track forecast is a little to the south of the previous one in the short term, mainly due to the more southward initial motion, and then slightly to the east of the previous track to come into better agreement with the latest models. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for strengthening during the next few days, and accordingly most of the guidance shows the cyclone intensifying. The SHIPS model shows the shear increasing in 4 to 5 days, and that, along with more stable air and decreasing SSTs, should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening. The official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and remains near the high end of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 10.9N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 11.1N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 11.4N 137.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 11.6N 140.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 11.8N 141.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 12.5N 144.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 14.3N 144.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 17.3N 143.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:53 UTC