ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 400 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 Marty continues to produce minor, sporadic, bursts of deep convection. Data from a 1605Z ASCAT pass showed that the maximum winds have decreased to near 25 kt over a small area of the northern semicircle. Marty is now forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 12 hours and the low is expected to dissipate a couple of days thereafter. However, the scatterometer data suggested that the circulation was already becoming elongated and nearly open over the southwestern quadrant. If this trend continues, the system could lose its identity as a surface cyclone sooner than indicated in this forecast. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest SHIPS guidance. The slow westward motion of around 275/5 kt continues. A mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should push Marty westward, with slight increase in forward speed, for the next couple of days before the circulation dissipates. The official track forecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamical model guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 16.3N 103.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 16.4N 103.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1800Z 16.6N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 16.9N 106.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z 17.2N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Gallina NNNN
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