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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

Marty continues to produce minor, sporadic, bursts of deep
convection.  Data from a 1605Z ASCAT pass showed that the maximum
winds have decreased to near 25 kt over a small area of the
northern semicircle.  Marty is now forecast to degenerate into a
remnant low in 12 hours and the low is expected to dissipate a
couple of days thereafter.  However, the scatterometer data
suggested that the circulation was already becoming elongated and
nearly open over the southwestern quadrant.  If this trend
continues, the system could lose its identity as a surface cyclone
sooner than indicated in this forecast.  The official intensity
forecast is similar to the latest SHIPS guidance.

The slow westward motion of around 275/5 kt continues.  A
mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should push Marty westward,
with slight increase in forward speed, for the next couple of days
before the circulation dissipates.  The official track forecast is
roughly in the middle of the dynamical model guidance suite.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 16.3N 103.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 16.4N 103.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  01/1800Z 16.6N 105.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/0600Z 16.9N 106.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1800Z 17.2N 108.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Gallina

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