ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1000 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 Visible and infrared imagery shows the exposed and small low- level circulation of Marty with a slight burst of deep convection along the northern side of the center. The current intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. Nearly 20 kt of southwesterly vertical shear, associated with an upper-level low near 19N 109W, is currently affecting Marty. Global models forecast at least moderate southwesterly shear to continue over the cyclone for the next few days. Therefore, the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low within the next 24 hours, and to dissipate a couple of days later. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. The depression continues to move slowly westward, or 275/5 kt. Most of the model guidance shows the cyclone continuing to move westward for the next few days. A breakdown of the mid-level ridging over Baja California and northwestern Mexico should allow for a more northward component of motion by 72 hours, if the system still exists by that time. Since the deep convection over land has diminished, expected rainfall amounts have been decreased. Also, since the cyclone is weakening, the swell and high surf threats should decrease over the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 16.2N 102.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 16.3N 103.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 16.4N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0000Z 16.5N 105.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z 16.6N 106.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z 17.3N 109.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Gallina NNNN
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