ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin show that the westerly shear over Marty has increased to 35 kt, which is disrupting the structure of the cyclone. Satellite imagery and data from the Mexican radar at Acapulco indicate a new burst of convection in curved bands has developed to the northeast of the center. However, so far this burst is smaller than the previous one. The initial intensity is decreased to 45 kt in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. After moving a little to the east earlier today, the latest satellite and radar data suggest that the center is now drifting northward with an initial motion of 000/2. The mid- to upper-level trough north of the system is weakening and splitting, with an upper-level low developing northwest of Marty and a mid-level ridge developing north of the storm. This evolution should result in Marty beginning a west-northwestward to westward motion during the next 12-24 hours, and all of the track guidance supports this scenario. The new forecast track is similar to, but faster than the previous track. However, it is again slower than the model consensus. Continued moderate to strong shear should cause maintain steady to rapid weakening. The new intensity forecast, which is in best agreement with the LGEM model, is an update of the previous forecast and calls for Marty to weaken to a tropical depression in 24 hours and then degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours. It should be noted that this forecast again lies on the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope, so Marty could weaken faster than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 16.3N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 16.4N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 16.6N 102.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 16.7N 103.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1800Z 16.8N 104.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1800Z 17.0N 106.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1800Z 17.5N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:52 UTC