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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162015
900 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015

...DEPRESSION MAKES LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 112.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM N OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central portion of the Baja California peninsula
and extreme northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress
of the depression.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Sixteen-E was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 112.1
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 18
mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue
through Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of the
depression will continue to move across extreme northwestern Mexico
today, and move into southern Arizona tonight or early Tuesday
morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast and the depression will likely degenerate to
a remnant low later today or tonight.  During the past couple of
hours, a wind gust to 41 MPH...66 KM/H, was reported at Guaymas, in
the Mexican state of Sonora.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
3 to 5 inches across the northern Baja California peninsula, the
northwestern Mexican state of Sonora, and Arizona and New Mexico.
Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in Baja
California and Sonora, Mexico.  Isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches are possible in Arizona and New Mexico.  1 to 2 inches of
rain is expected over portions of southern California through
Tuesday.  This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible across
the Gulf of California and extreme northwestern mainland Mexico
today, especially in areas of higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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