ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162015
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 113.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central portion of the Baja California peninsula
an extreme northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress
of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area in the southwestern
United States, including flash flood watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.  For storm information specific to Mexico, please
monitor products issued by the meteorological service of Mexico.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Sixteen-E was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 113.7
West.  The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 14
mph (22 km/h).  A turn toward the north is expected soon.  On the
forecast track, the center of the depression will move across the
central Baja California peninsula tonight, across the Gulf of
California and extreme northwestern Mexico on Monday, and into
southern Arizona Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through Monday.  The
depression is forecast to become a remnant low by Monday night and
dissipate soon thereafter.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across
portions of the Baja California peninsula, as well as the
northwestern Mexican state of Sonora through Tuesday.  Moisture
from this system is expected to spread northward and produced
heavy rains over portions of southern California and Arizona on
Monday and Tuesday.  This rainfall could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible across
central portions of the Baja California peninsula and extreme
northwestern mainland Mexico through Monday, especially in areas of
higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN