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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162015
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015

The tropical cyclone has not intensified this evening, with much of
the deep convection being sheared off to the northeast of the
estimated low-level center.  The current intensity estimate remains
at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak analyses from both SAB and TAFB.
Since the center is expected to move over the south-central Baja
California peninsula tonight and move back inland later tomorrow
while southwesterly shear is forecast to remain strong, no increase
in strength is expected. The influence of land should reduce the
cyclone to a remnant low pressure area over Arizona by late Monday,
and the surface center should lose its identity shortly thereafter.

The center is not easy to locate on geostationary satellite
imagery, so the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain
010/13.  A mid-level ridge to the east of the depression along with
a cyclonic circulation to the west should induce a north-
northeastward motion through Monday.  The track guidance is
in general agreement on a slight acceleration through tomorrow
morning, and is a little to the right of the previous model runs.
The official forecast is shifted slightly to the east of the
previous one.  This is close to the latest model consensus with a
little additional weight given to the reliable ECMWF solution.

Moisture associated with the depression is spreading northward, and
expected to cause heavy rainfall across portions of the Baja
California peninsula, northwestern mainland Mexico, southern
California, and Arizona during the next several days.  These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially
in areas of mountainous terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 26.2N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 28.7N 113.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 31.5N 112.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  22/1200Z 34.0N 111.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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