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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (Text)


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162015
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015

Recent ASCAT data indicate that the low pressure area off the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula has a low-level center
located within a 30-45 nm wide area of light winds.  This area is
small enough to meet the criterion of a well-defined center, and
the low is therefore being classified as a tropical depression.
The ASCAT data and a recent ship report indicate that the intensity
is 30 kt.

The depression is located between a mid-level ridge centered over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and a mid-/upper-level cut-off low
located well west of the Baja California peninsula.  This pattern
is steering the depression quickly north-northwestward with an
initial motion of 345/12 kt.  The depression is expected to turn
northward soon and continue that heading through 36 hours.  The
track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC official track
forecast is very close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF.

The depression will be moving across the Baja California peninsula
by tonight, and southwesterly shear is expected to increase to near
25 kt in 12 hours and 35-40 kt by 24 hours.  Therefore,
strengthening is not expected, and the system should remain as a
tropical depression while it moves across the Baja California
peninsula and the Gulf of California.  The associated deep
convection is likely to be sheared away from the center by 36
hours, making the system a remnant low when it moves into southern
Arizona.  Dissipation is expected by 48 hours.

Moisture associated with the depression is expected to cause heavy
rainfall across portions of the Baja California peninsula,
northwestern mainland Mexico, southern California, and Arizona
during the next several days.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 25.0N 113.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 27.1N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/1800Z 30.3N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  22/0600Z 32.8N 112.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:51 UTC