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HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
900 PM MDT MON SEP 07 2015

Linda's cloud pattern has become less organized since earlier today.
 A 0116 UTC SSMIS pass showed the low-level center on the
northeastern tip of the deepest convection, to the northeast of
previous estimates.  The distribution of convection in the cyclone's
central dense overcast has also become somewhat asymmetric. The
current structural organization of the cyclone suggests that
moderate northeasterly shear over the cyclone has been a factor in
the system's evolution today.  The initial intensity estimate is
lowered to 80 kt, on the lower end of a blend of Dvorak Final T- and
CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Although most large-scale factors
could favor some additional intensification, the current arrested
development is likely to continue as Linda continues to feel the
effect of northeasterly shear associated with an upper-level
anticyclone to its northeast.  Within 24 to 36 hours, Linda will be
traversing marginally cool waters and ingesting drier and more
stable air, which should result in slow but steady weakening.  The
rate of weakening should become rapid in 2 to 3 days once Linda
reaches even colder waters and thermodynamic factors become
increasingly more hostile. Remnant low status is now predicted in 3
days. The new NHC forecast is lowered relative to the previous one
and generally lies near the multi-model consensus.

Linda has been moving northwestward or 325/09 throughout the day.
The cyclone is moving in a deep-layer southeasterly flow on the
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge located over northern
Mexico.  The ridge is forecast to weaken during the next couple of
days, which should result in a decrease in Linda's forward speed
while it maintains about the same heading. The low-level trades
should begin to steer the cyclone west-northwestward in 2 to 3 days,
and then westward after that time as Linda weakens and becomes an
increasingly shallower cyclone. The NHC track forecast has been
adjusted to the right of the previous one, based on a re-positioning
of the center based on recent microwave fixes.

Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja
California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions
of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 18.8N 112.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 20.4N 113.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 21.8N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 23.1N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 24.4N 117.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 25.9N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/0000Z 26.3N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/0000Z 26.3N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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