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HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
300 AM MDT MON SEP 07 2015

Linda has continued to rapidly strengthen overnight. An 0631 UTC
GMI microwave overpass shows that a well-defined eye has developed
within the very symmetric central dense overcast (CDO) feature that
is seen in conventional satellite imagery.  The eye has not yet
become evident in the infrared satellite data.  The initial wind
speed has been increased to 75 kt, which is in agreement with the
latest TAFB Dvorak classification and ADT intensity estimates from
UW/CIMSS.

Linda is likely to continue to rapidly strengthen today.  The
hurricane will be traversing very warm water and remain in a
moist, low shear environment.  The NHC intensity forecast now brings
Linda to major hurricane strength in 24 hours, which is slightly
above the intensity guidance.  After that time, decreasing SSTs and
less favorable thermodynamic factors are expected to cause
weakening. A faster rate of decay is likely after 48 hours when
Linda moves over SSTs below 26C and into a much more stable
environment.  The latter portion of the intensity forecast is
essentially an update of the previous advisory and is close to the
SHIPS model.

The initial motion estimate is 315/12.  The hurricane is forecast
to move northwestward during the next 2 to 3 days around the western
portion of a mid-level ridge that is centered over northern Mexico.
After that time, a weaker Linda should turn west-northwestward,
and then westward in the low to mid-level flow on the southern
side of a low-level ridge.  The track guidance is in good agreement
on this scenario.  The guidance has shifted a bit to the north at
72 hours and beyond, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 16.7N 111.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 18.2N 112.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 21.5N 115.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 22.8N 116.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 25.2N 118.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 26.0N 120.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 26.0N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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