| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Hurricane LINDA (Text)


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015

Linda has been rapidly intensifying.  Within the cyclone's sprawling
circulation, a relatively small central dense overcast (CDO) has
formed during the last 6 to 12 hours over the estimated low-level
center.  The deep convection within this feature has expanded in
coverage, the associated cloud tops have cooled considerably, and
its shape has become increasingly more symmetric.  A 0110 UTC
Windsat pass confirmed the rapid increase of inner-core structural
organization, with a closed low-level ring of convection evident. A
TAFB satellite classification of a T4.0/65 kt and the latest
UW-CIMSS ADT value of 4.2/70 kt are used to raise the initial
intensity to 65 kt.

The current rapid intensification is likely to continue for another
24 hours or so, since Linda will be moving over anomalously warm
waters of 28 to 29.5 deg C and embedded in a very moist environment.
The only negative factor could be some northeasterly shear as
indicated in SHIPS model output.  However, this shear has not
prevented Linda from strengthening much faster than the
climatological rate of one T-number per day thus far.  A more
poleward and faster track forecast (described below) should bring
Linda over cooler waters sooner, and increasingly unfavorable
thermodynamic factors should cause rapid weakening to begin in 2 to
3 days.  Remnant low status is shown at day 5, but it would not be
surprising if it occurred earlier.  The new intensity forecast is
higher than the previous one and shows a peak intensity in 24 hours.
Overall, it is just above the strongest guidance, the SHIPS and FSU
Superensemble output, in the short term and near the multi-model
consensus after that.

Linda has been moving more poleward and faster, and the initial
motion estimate is 320/12.  Water vapor and upper-air analyses show
a large mid-level anticyclone near the Texas-Mexico border, with a
weakness in the ridge between 120-130W.  Global models show Linda
moving northwestward to north-northwestward toward the break in this
ridge within a deep-layer southeasterly flow during the next couple
of days.  As the ridge weakens and shifts westward over northern
Mexico in 2 to 3 days, Linda should continue northwestward but
decelerate.  The rapid weakening forecast to begin around that time
should make Linda a progressively shallower cyclone, and its track
is forecast to bend west-northwestward and westward by days 4 and 5
as it will then be under the influence of the low-level subtropical
ridge.  The new track forecast is shifted to the right and faster
than the previous one through 72 hours, and is close to the
multi-model consensus.  By day 5, the track is slower and a bit to
the left of the old forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 16.1N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 17.3N 111.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 19.2N 113.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 20.9N 114.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 22.1N 115.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 24.2N 117.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 25.0N 119.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 25.2N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

NNNN

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:50 UTC