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TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 08 2015

JIMENA IS A SHEARED CYCLONE AND CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION OF
LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
CENTER...THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO
DECREASE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT. THE
GLOBAL MODELS SEPARATE THE LOW-LEVEL FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER AS
QUICKLY AS 48 HOURS, AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT STRONG SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE. ON THIS BASIS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR JIMENA TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 48
HOURS OR SO. THE LOW COULD REMAIN LINGERING FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST OR 270
DEGREES AT 6 KT. SINCE JIMENA IS BECOMING A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT
WILL LIKELY BE STEERED SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY TURN MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A NEW TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 26.5N 153.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 26.3N 154.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 25.9N 156.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 25.6N 158.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 25.4N 159.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1800Z 25.5N 161.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z 26.4N 163.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1800Z 31.2N 166.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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