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ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 Satellite images indicate that Jimena is continuing to rapidly intensify. The overall cold cloud canopy has expanded, with well- defined banding features around the central dense overcast, which has occasionally showed hints of an eye. The initial intensity is raised to 70 kt, a blend of the 65 kt subjective Dvorak estimates and a 77 kt objective value from the UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial motion estimate remains 270/12 kt. Jimena is expected to move westward along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge for the next 24-36 hours. After that time a turn toward the west-northwest is expected, with some decrease in forward speed likely late in the forecast due to a mid-latitude trough weakening the ridge. The track guidance continues to be in remarkable agreement on the forecast for the next several days, with the NHC model guidance tightly packed near the 0300 UTC forecast track, so the new forecast is very close to the previous one. Environmental conditions are quite favorable for further strengthening, with very warm water, high mid-level moisture and low shear forecast for at least the next 48 hours. In response to these conditions, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index is forecasting a 61 percent chance of a 30 kt increase during the next 24 hours. Thus, the official NHC prediction will continue to explicitly indicate rapid intensification for the first day of the forecast. Most of the guidance shows the peak intensity around 48 hours, so the NHC forecast will as well, although it remains below some of the guidance. Beyond that time, slightly cooler SSTs are expected, along with lower upper-ocean heat content values. Therefore, slow weakening is indicated from days 3 to 5. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory after adjusting for the initial strength, and lies between the forecasts of the SHIPS and LGEM models, which continue to perform quite well with Jimena. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 12.1N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 12.2N 122.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 12.3N 124.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 12.8N 126.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 13.6N 128.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 15.4N 133.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 16.9N 137.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 17.8N 140.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN