ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122015 800 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2015 Ignacio's convective cloud pattern has continued to improve and recent passive microwave satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone has developed a large but closed eye, which is embedded in the center of a smooth CDO feature. Upper-level outflow is well-defined in all quadrants and is expanding. The initial intensity of 65 kt is based on an average of satellite intensity estimates of T4.4/75 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, T4.0/65 kt from TAFB, and T3.5/55 kt from SAB. This makes Ignacio the seventh hurricane of the 2015 eastern North Pacific season. Microwave satellite fixes indicate that Ignacio has finally made the expected turn toward the west-northwest, and the motion estimate is now 290/11 kt. A west-northwestward motion is expected to continue throughout the forecast period due to a strong subtropical ridge to the north of Ignacio producing a deep layer of east-southeasterly steering flow. Although the GFS and ECMWF models differ widely on the track of the hurricane after 72 hours, the other reliable guidance models lie between those two aforementioned extremes. The NHC official forecast track lies close to the previous advisory track and a blend of the various consensus models. Environmental conditions are expected to generally be favorable for additional strengthening throughout the forecast period. The main hindering factor will be modest vertical wind shear for the next 24-36 hours, after which the shear is expected to decrease to less than 10 kt. However, given the very impressive outflow pattern that has developed, along with the aforementioned eye feature, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility during the next 24 hours. By days 4 and 5, thermodynamic and oceanic conditions are expected to become less favorable, and gradual weakening is expected to occur during that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is close to the consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 12.2N 137.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 12.8N 138.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 13.8N 140.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 14.6N 142.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 15.4N 144.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 16.7N 147.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 18.1N 150.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 19.5N 153.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:45 UTC