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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015
800 AM PDT MON AUG 17 2015

Convection associated with the depression is becoming sheared out
to the northwest of the low-level center, the latter of which is
becoming increasingly difficult to locate since the circulation is
elongated northwest to southeast. The intensity will remain at 30
kt, based on continuity with the previous advisory and a Dvorak CI
value of T2.0 from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate of 305/14 is based on continuity with
the previous forecast track and recent SSMI/S and AMSU overpasses.
The depression is expected to remain embedded within a deep
southeasterly steering flow, which should cause the cyclone to
continue on a northwestward to west-northwestward course until
dissipation by 96 hours. The NHC model guidance is tightly clustered
through 36 hours, and the official forecast track lies close to the
consensus models TVCE and GFEX.

The depression is now over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures
with colder water ahead of the cyclone. The combination of colder
ocean conditions, drier mid-level air, and increasing southeasterly
vertical wind shear should result in the system's rapid demise
during the next 12 hours or so. The cyclone is expected to become
a remnant low pressure system by 12 hours, and dissipate by 96 hours
when the system will be over 22 deg C to 23 deg C SSTs. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely
follows the consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 21.8N 120.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 23.2N 122.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/1200Z 24.9N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0000Z 26.1N 127.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1200Z 27.1N 129.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1200Z 29.0N 131.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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