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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102015
800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2015

Convection associated with the area of low pressure located well
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
has organized into a couple of bands over the northern and eastern
portions of the circulation.  Visible satellite data also indicates
that the circulation has become better defined and advisories are
being initiated on the tenth tropical depression of the 2015
eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

The depression is moving westward or 270/10 kt.  The cyclone is
expected to continue heading westward to the south of a narrow mid-
to upper-level ridge.  After 72 hours, a deepening mid-level trough
well to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is forecast to produce
a weakness in the ridge between 140W and 150W longitude. This should
result in the cyclone turning west-northwestward, then northwestward
late in the forecast period.  The dynamical models are in good
agreement on this scenario and the NHC track is near the middle of
the guidance envelope.

The cyclone is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a low
shear environment during the next several days.  The primary
inhibiting factor appears to be some mid-level dry air to the north
of the system.  As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for
gradual strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days.  After 72 hours,
slightly cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing
southwesterly shear are expected to induce weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 12.5N 129.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 12.5N 131.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 12.5N 133.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 12.6N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 12.9N 136.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 14.2N 140.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 15.8N 143.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 17.8N 145.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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