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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2015

The rather harsh thermodynamic atmospheric environment and
decreasing sea surface temperatures continue to have a substantial
effect on Felicia's cloud pattern.  The cyclone's circulation
consists mainly of a swirl of stable stratocumulus low clouds with a
diminishing deep convective curved band displaced well to the east.
The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory based on a
compromise of the final-T and CI numbers from both TAFB and SAB.
Felicia should continue to spin down and become a remnant low either
tonight or Saturday morning, with dissipation expected in 3 days or
less.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/9 kt.
There are no significant changes to the forecast philosophy in this
advisory.  As Felicia continues to weaken into a shallow system, a
turn toward the west within the low-level easterly flow of the
subtropical ridge is expected tonight.  The NHC forecast is
essentially an update of the previous advisory but nudged
slightly toward the right to side with a blend of the GFEX and TVCN
multi-model consensus forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 21.7N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 22.5N 119.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/0000Z 23.3N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1200Z 23.5N 123.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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