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TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015
200 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2015

Felicia is apparently experiencing a less conducive environment
sooner than anticipated.  The coverage and intensity of deep
convection has diminished since earlier today, and the center of the
storm has become exposed to the northwest of the main area of
thunderstorms.  The current intensity is held at 35 kt in
accordance with the Dvorak rules.  Over the next day or two, the
cyclone is expected to move over cooler waters, and into a more
stable air mass.  The latter is evidenced by the field of
stratocumulus seen to its northwest.  Weakening to a depression is
likely to occur tomorrow, and Felicia should become a remnant low on
Saturday.  If current trends continue, however, the system could
weaken sooner than shown here.  The NHC intensity forecast is close
to the SHIPS guidance.

The motion, 310/11 kt, is about the same as before.  Over the next
day or so, Felicia should be be steered by the flow on
the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone
centered over the Southern Plains of the United States.
Thereafter, the increasingly shallow vortex should move
west-northwestward to westward within the lower-tropospheric flow.
The official track forecast is similar to, but a little faster
than, the previous forecast.  This is slightly slower than the
latest consensus model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 19.8N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 20.7N 116.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 21.7N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 22.4N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 22.8N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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