ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072015 900 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015 Conventional satellite imagery and a couple of recent microwave overpasses show that spiral banding has improved during the past several hours, particularly over the eastern and southern portions of the cyclone. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt, supporting an upgrade of the system to a tropical storm. Although Felicia has about 24 hours or so before moving over cooler water and into a more stable environment, persistent northerly shear should impede any significant strengthening. The statistical-dynamical intensity guidance all show Felicia weakening to a remnant low in 48 hours, and this is reflected in the official forecast. Global models subsequently indicate the cyclone dissipating or opening up into a trough in 4 days or less. The initial motion is estimated to be 320/11. Felicia is forecast to continue moving northwestward within the mid-level flow on the southwestern side of the subtropical ridge during the next 24-36 hours. Afterward, the dynamical models show Felicia gradually turning westward as the system degenerates into a remnant low and is steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the first advisory, and closely follows the GFEX and TVCN multi-model consensus forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 19.1N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 20.1N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 21.2N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 22.0N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 22.6N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 22.8N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
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