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TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015
900 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

Conventional satellite imagery and a couple of recent microwave
overpasses show that spiral banding has improved during the past
several hours, particularly over the eastern and southern portions
of the cyclone.  Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB
are T2.5/35 kt, supporting an upgrade of the system to a tropical
storm.  Although Felicia has about 24 hours or so before
moving over cooler water and into a more stable environment,
persistent northerly shear should impede any significant
strengthening.  The statistical-dynamical intensity guidance all
show Felicia weakening to a remnant low in 48 hours, and this is
reflected in the official forecast.  Global models subsequently
indicate the cyclone dissipating or opening up into a trough in 4
days or less.

The initial motion is estimated to be 320/11.  Felicia is forecast
to continue moving northwestward within the mid-level flow on the
southwestern side of the subtropical ridge during the next 24-36
hours.  Afterward, the dynamical models show Felicia gradually
turning westward as the system degenerates into a remnant low and is
steered by the low-level tradewind flow.  The NHC forecast is
basically an update of the first advisory, and closely follows the
GFEX and TVCN multi-model consensus forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 19.1N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 20.1N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 21.2N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 22.0N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 22.6N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1200Z 22.8N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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