ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2015 Enrique is a well-defined vortex, mainly consisting of low-level stratocumulus clouds. Although a small thunderstorm cluster has developed north of the cyclone's center in the last couple of hours, overall Enrique has been devoid of any significant deep convection near the center for about 12 hours. Dvorak current intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB have dropped to a 1.5, or 25 kt. A 2024Z RapidScat pass suggested peak surface winds in Enrique of 40 kt, but these winds are likely rain-inflated and may not be reliable. Based on the tight swirl remaining in the low cloud field, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. As the cyclone should remain over cool 24-25 degree C water and embedded within dry stable air, it is anticipated that Enrique will soon become a remnant low. Due to the large size of the vortex, however, it will likely take four to five days for Enrique's remnant low to spin down and dissipate, as indicated by the global models. Enrique is moving toward the northwest at 5 kt due to the steering induced by a surface high to its north. As Hurricane Dolores approaches from the southeast, the low-level steering near Enrique will collapse in a day or so. This should allow Enrique to meander until dissipation occurs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 20.5N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 20.7N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z 20.7N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 20.3N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 20.0N 137.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z 19.9N 137.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z 20.5N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:39 UTC