ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2015 Enrique has become a swirl of low- and mid-level clouds with isolated thunderstorm activity as the center moves over sea surface temperatures of about 25C. The initial intensity is decreased to 30 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The forecast track keeps the cyclone over cool waters, and it is expected to degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours and dissipate completely between 96-120 hours. A jog to the north has occurred since the last advisory, and the initial motion is now 300/7. A west-northwestward motion should continue for another 12 hours or so. After that, steering currents weaken, and the cyclone or its remnants should slow down as it turns westward and southward. The global models agree that the remnants of Enrique will be slow moving during the 48-96 hour period, although there are differences in the details of the tracks. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track in showing a southward turn after 36 hours, followed by little motion from 48-96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 20.2N 135.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 20.6N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 20.6N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 20.5N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 20.1N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1800Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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