ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 The initial motion estimate is 290/06 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track or intensity forecast reasonings. For the next 96-120 hours, Enrique is forecast to remain in a sheared environment while it moves slowly west-northwestward to westward along the south side of a weakening mid-level ridge, and gradually weaken as the cyclone moves over sub-25C SSTs and into a much drier airmass. Enrique is forecast to become a tropical depression on Thursday and degenerate into a remnant low by Friday, after which the weak and vertically shallow cyclone could drift southward or stall due to weakening steering currents. The SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity model shows Enrique completely dissipating by 36 hours. However, the tropical cyclone possesses a fairly large circulation, which should take a longer-than-average amount of time to spin down. As such, the solution of the GFS and ECMWF models holding onto the remnant low through at least 96 hours has been preferred in this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 19.2N 134.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 19.8N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 20.3N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 20.5N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 20.3N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 19.8N 137.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z 19.7N 137.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN
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