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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015

Microwave images during the evening indicate that Enrique's
circulation is tilted with the low-level center located near the
southern portion of the main convective mass.  This is due to
moderate south-southwesterly shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model
and a UW/CIMSS shear analysis.  A blend of the latest satellite
intensity estimates still support an initial intensity of 45 kt.
The moderate southerly shear and decreasing sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track should result in gradual
weakening during the next couple of days, and Enrique is expected
to become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days.

The initial motion estimate is 295/8 kt. The storm should continue
to move west-northwestward to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge
during the next day or two.  After 48 hours, the large circulation
of Hurricane Dolores is expected to cause the steering currents to
weaken over the far eastern Pacific.  This should result in a
reduction in Enrique's forward speed, and a southward drift later
in the forecast period.  The NHC forecast is similar to the
previous advisory through 48 hours, and has been adjusted a little
westward thereafter, to be in better agreement with the multi-model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 18.8N 132.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 19.3N 133.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 20.0N 134.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 20.6N 135.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 20.9N 136.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 20.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0600Z 19.5N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0600Z 19.3N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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