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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015

Enrique has not changed much during the last several hours.  The
cyclone is maintaining a small central dense overcast and rain
bands over the northern portion of the circulation.  The initial
intensity is held at 45 kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.  Enrique is
headed for cooler water, and it should have crossed the 26 C
isotherm by Wednesday morning.  These cool waters combined with an
increasingly more stable air mass and southwesterly shear should
cause steady weakening.  Enrique will likely become a remnant low
in 2 to 3 days.  The intensity models are in good agreement, and
this forecast is close to the intensity model consensus.

The storm continues moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt.  This
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days while
the system remains steered by a narrow mid-level ridge.  After that
time, the cyclone is forecast to decelerate and then drift southward
when the steering currents collapse as Hurricane Dolores approaches
from the east.  This track forecast is similar to the previous one
and is close to the middle of the guidance envelope.

The 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted inward based on an ASCAT
pass from earlier today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 18.7N 131.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 19.2N 132.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 19.8N 133.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 20.4N 134.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 20.9N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 21.0N 136.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0000Z 20.5N 136.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0000Z 20.2N 136.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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