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TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
0900 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.1W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.1W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 100.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.4N 102.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.4N 104.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.0N 105.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.6N 107.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.8N 109.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 110.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 101.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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