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TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015

The coverage and intensity of deep convection associated with
Dolores continues to wane, with only patchy areas of cloud tops
colder than -50C remaining.  The initial intensity has been lowered
to 40 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective
Dvorak estimates.  With the cyclone moving over steadily decreasing
SSTs during the next couple of days, continued weakening is forecast
and Dolores is now expected to become post-tropical by 48 hours,
although this could occur even sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 290/09. The track forecast reasoning
is unchanged, as the cyclone will be moving around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge, resulting in a turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest in the next 24 hours. After Dolores
becomes a remnant low, the system is forecast to turn northward and
then move slowly prior to dissipation in the weak low-level flow
well southwest of the coast of southern California. The new NHC
track forecast is very close to the previous one and continues to
lie a little to the left of the TVCE multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 21.8N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 22.5N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 24.2N 118.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 26.2N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 28.3N 120.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0000Z 30.7N 121.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0000Z 31.0N 120.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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