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TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015

The center of Dolores is now over water colder than 26C, and deep
convection continues to gradually wane.  Dvorak CI numbers ranged
from 55-77 kt at 1200 UTC, and the advisory intensity is set at 60
kt, which is in agreement with the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT
estimate.  Steady weakening is expected to continue due to even
colder water and an increase in vertical shear in about 48 hours,
and Dolores is likely to become a remnant low in a few days.
Dissipation is now forecast by day 5 based on the latest global
model guidance.

The initial motion is 295/8 kt.  A mid-level subtropical ridge
extending from northern Mexico westward over the Pacific Ocean
should continue steering Dolores west-northwestward through
tonight.  Starting on Saturday, the cyclone will accelerate
northwestward and north-northwestward around the western periphery
of the ridge.  By day 4, the remnant low will likely become nearly
stationary well southwest of southern California due to weak
low-level steering flow.  The NHC track forecast is close to the
model consensus and is not much different from the previous
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 21.4N 115.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 21.9N 116.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 22.9N 117.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 24.7N 119.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 26.8N 120.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 30.7N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/1200Z 31.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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