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HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
300 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

Dolores has continued to strengthen overnight with conventional
satellite imagery revealing a clear 13 nmi eye and very cold
cloud top temperatures of -80C over the western portion of the
eyewall.  The outflow pattern continues to improve, particularly
over the northwestern and southeastern quadrants.  Accordingly, the
initial intensity is raised to 115 kt based on Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates of T6.0 from both TAFB and SAB.  Dolores should
peak in about 24 hours as reflected in the statistical-
dynamical intensity guidance, and the NHC forecast indicates a
maximum intensity of 130 kt at the time, which is just below the
SHIPS model. Afterward, Dolores should gradually spin down
through the remainder of the period and weaken to a depression
by day 5.

The initial motion is estimated to be 295/6 kt.  Dolores
continues to move under the influence of the east-northeasterly
mid-tropospheric flow produced by the subtropical ridge extending
westward from northern Mexico.  The large-scale models are in
agreement with the aforementioned ridge strengthening between the 48
and 72 hour periods which should induce a slightly faster
west-northwestward forward motion.  Afterward, Dolores is forecast
to turn toward the northwest and slow a bit in response to a mid- to
upper-level trough approaching the coast of California.  The NHC
forecast is shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast
beyond the 24 hour period to coincide with a blend of the GFEX and
TVCE consensus models.

The 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on earlier ASCAT
overpasses.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 18.3N 109.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 18.7N 110.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 19.3N 111.6W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 19.9N 112.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 20.4N 114.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 21.6N 117.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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