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TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
1000 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

There has been no appreciable change to the organization of
Dolores' cloud pattern during the past several hours.  Satellite
data show the cyclone maintaining a large mass of cold-topped
convection, primarily in a band over the northeastern semicircle of
the circulation. Microwave data and visible satellite imagery
suggest that the low-level center is located near a new convective
burst, perhaps the beginning of a central dense overcast. Dvorak
classifications were T2.5 and T3.0 from SAB and TAFB, respectively,
at 1200 UTC.  A blend of these satellite intensity estimates is used
to keep the intensity at 40 kt.

The initial motion is between west-northwest and northwest or
305/09. A mid-level anticyclone over the south-central United
States should steer Dolores on a generally west-northwestward
heading for the next 5 days, with some deceleration in forward speed
by 48 hours.  Global models are in excellent agreement on this
scenario, and the spread of the model guidance is generally low
through 72 hours, except for the GFDL model that takes Dolores
toward the Baja California peninsula.  After 72 hours, the model
solutions diverge somewhat, with the GFS taking Dolores farther
north due to a weaker subtropical ridge and the ECMWF showing the
cyclone farther west due to a stronger ridge and a weaker trough off
of the U.S. West coast. The NHC forecast track is along or just to
the left of the previous forecast, closely following the multi-model
consensus minus the GFDL solution.

Dolores seems poised to strengthen.  Atmospheric and oceanic
thermodynamic variables are quite conducive for intensification
through about 96 hours. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 70
percent chance of a 25-kt increase by this time tomorrow. However,
the SHIPS model does indicate some light westerly or northwesterly
shear in 24-48 hours, but it would appear that the shear is not
enough to impede intensification.  Beyond 96 hours, water
temperatures are expected to be marginally warm and Dolores should
have already begun to ingest somewhat drier and more stable air,
which should promote weakening.  The intensity at the end of the
forecast period is very much dependent on how much latitude Dolores
gains by that time.  Like previous forecasts, the current one is
near or above the multi-model consensus similar to SHIPS
model guidance.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along
the southwestern coast of Mexico due to the cyclone's expected
intensification and associated increase in the size of the wind
field.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 15.4N 101.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 16.1N 103.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 16.8N 104.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 17.3N 106.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 17.8N 107.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 18.8N 109.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 19.7N 110.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 20.3N 113.3W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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