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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
700 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...RAPIDLY WEAKENING CARLOS NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 105.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM S OF PLAYA PERULA MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 105.1 West. Carlos is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs on
Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Carlos will cross the
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area today and move over the
western coast of Mexico by this evening.

Maximum sustained winds have rapidly decreased to near 45 mph (75
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is expected as
Carlos moves near or over the coast of western Mexico today. The
cyclone is forecast to become a tropical depression by tonight and a
remnant low by Thursday morning as it moves off of the coast of
Mexico and into the southern Gulf of California.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit through Friday.  These rains may
produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in
areas of higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two.  These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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