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HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
700 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...CARLOS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 104.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located
near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 104.0 West.  Carlos is moving
toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A turn to the
north-northwest is expected Wednesday morning, and this motion
is forecast to continue through Thursday morning.  On the forecast
track, Carlos should move parallel to and just offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico over the next couple of days.  However,
only a small deviation to the north of the forecast track could
bring Carlos to the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is expected to commence on Wednesday and
continue through Thursday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through Wednesday.  Hurricane conditions are possible within
the hurricane watch area later today.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican
states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango,
and Sinaloa with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible
through Thursday morning.  Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches
are also possible.  These rains may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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