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Hurricane CARLOS (Text)


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HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
700 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...COMPACT CARLOS REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 103.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 103.3 West. Carlos is moving
toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn toward
the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Carlos will move
parallel to and just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico
over the next day or two. However, only a small deviation to the
north of the forecast track could bring the core of the hurricane to
the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple
of days, followed by steady weakening.

Carlos remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-
storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning
area tonight through Tuesday.  Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area on Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and
maximum totals of 15 inches possible.  These rains may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days.  These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:34 UTC