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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
100 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...CARLOS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 101.6W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 101.6 West. Carlos is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.  On
the forecast track, Carlos will move parallel to the southern coast
of Mexico over the next day or two.  However, a small deviation to
the north of the track would bring the center of Carlos closer to
the coast.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours and
Carlos is forecast to become a hurricane again tonight.

Carlos is small cyclone.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area today.  Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area tonight or early Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and
maximum totals of 15 inches possible.  These rains may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days.  These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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