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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...CARLOS HUGGING THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 105.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning east of Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located along the coast of western Mexico near latitude 19.6 North,
longitude 105.3 West. Carlos is moving toward the north-northwest
near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue
until dissipation occurs on Friday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Carlos will cross the coast in the Tropical Storm Warning
area today and move into the the Gulf of California late tonight or
Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected as Carlos moves near or over the coast of
western Mexico today. The cyclone is forecast to become a tropical
depression by tonight and a remnant low by Thursday morning as it
moves off of the coast of Mexico and into the southern Gulf of
California.

Carlos remains a very small cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
only extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the Mexican states of Jalisco
and Colima.  These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two.  These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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