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BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...HURRICANE CARLOS MOVING PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 103.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
east of Punta San Telmo. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued
from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located
near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 103.0 West. Carlos is moving
toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn toward
the northwest on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, Carlos will move
parallel to and just offshore of the southern coast of Mexico over
the next day or two. However, only a small deviation to the north of
the forecast track could bring the core of the hurricane to the
coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple
of days, followed by steady weakening.

Carlos remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-
storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning
area tonight.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area on Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and
maximum totals of 15 inches possible.  These rains may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days.  These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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