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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
0900 UTC MON JUN 15 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 101.8W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 101.8W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 101.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 102.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.4N 103.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N 104.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.7N 105.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.7N 105.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 22.3N 106.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 101.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


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