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HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1500 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LAZARO
CARDENAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM TECPAN
DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.2W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.2W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 100.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.2N 100.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.8N 101.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.3N 102.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.9N 103.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 100.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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