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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
0300 UTC FRI JUN 12 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 100.4W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 100.4W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 100.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 100.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  70SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.0N 100.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.2N 101.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE  90SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.4N 101.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.3N 103.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N 105.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 19.2N 107.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 100.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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