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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
2100 UTC THU JUN 11 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 100.3W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 100.3W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 100.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.3N 100.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  80SE  70SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.6N 100.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.9N 100.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE  90SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.1N 101.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.7N 102.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 18.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 100.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY


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