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HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Tiny hurricane Carlos' surface circulation is appearing to become
unglued from its deep convection and its mid-level circulation.
While a mid-level center may be co-located within the convection
near 17.5N 105.0W, the surface center is located substantially
farther northeast.  However, it is an open question as to where
exactly it is currently located.  My best estimate shown below is
based upon last-light visible imagery and a very timely 0051Z
WindSat microwave pass.

The initial position suggests a current motion of 315/4 kt.
Decaying Carlos should continue to move toward the northwest at
about the same rate of speed, as it gets advected along by the
low-level flow.  As all of the global models lose the circulation
of Carlos within a day, the track forecast is based upon a blend of
persistence and the BAM advection models.  Due to the more northward
initial position, the track prediction is farther north than that
from the previous advisory.

The areal extent of deep convection is also diminishing and the
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are dropping in
response.  The initial intensity of 65 kt is based upon a 4.0 CI
number from both agencies, which represents a substantial drop
from what the aircraft reconnaissance observed only several hours
ago.  It is quite possible that the tropical cyclone is even weaker
than indicated here, given the rather abrupt dislocation of the
convection from the center. Embedded within an increasingly dry and
stable atmosphere coupled with moderate northerly vertical shear,
Carlos should continue to weaken.  The official forecast is a blend
between the LGEM and SHIPS statistical models (which slowly weaken
Carlos) and the HWRF and GFDL dynamical models (which nearly
immediately dissipate Carlos).  This forecast is substantially below
the predictions from the last advisory due to the quick reversal
from intensification to weakening.  Given the tiny size of the
system, the very rapid dissipation indicated by the dynamical models
is not out of the question.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 18.2N 104.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 19.1N 105.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 19.5N 106.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 19.8N 106.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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