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HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Carlos is a feisty little hurricane.  Despite the hurricane's
satellite presentation, the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
measured maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 90 kt and SFMR winds
between 80-85 kt. The maximum surface winds are therefore estimated
to be 80 kt.  The flight meteorologist also indicated that Carlos's
eye was about 7-8 n mi wide.  There continues to be low confidence
in the intensity forecast, since none of the models seem to be able
to handle Carlos's size particularly well.  The statistical-
dynamical models keep Carlos as a hurricane for another three days
or so, while the global and regional dynamical models indicate fast
weakening (the ECMWF shows dissipation within 24 hours!).  The NHC
official intensity forecast indicates gradual weakening through day
3, with dissipation by day 4.  However, Carlos's small size makes it
susceptible to large swings in intensity, and even a slight increase
in shear or dry air could lead to faster weakening than indicated.

Based on the aircraft fixes, Carlos appears to have turned
northwestward, or 305/4 kt, toward a break in the subtropical
ridge located over northern Mexico and Texas.  Since the most
reliable track models dissipate the cyclone so soon, the official
forecast relies on the remaining available guidance (GFDL, NAVGEM,
and GFNI) more than usual.  The updated NHC track forecast is
essentially a blend of the available guidance and the previous
official forecast.

Due to the high uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts,
the tropical storm warning and hurricane watch for the coast of
Mexico will be unchanged.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 17.8N 104.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 18.2N 104.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 18.9N 105.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 19.6N 106.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 20.2N 106.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 21.6N 107.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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